Betfair’s Kevin Blake is back with his Big Race verdict, this time looking through the Betfair Tingle Creek at Sandown on Saturday and he is hoping a 20/1 chance can fill the frame…
- Kevin Blake gives his Big Race Verdict on the Betfair Tingle Creek
- Master Chewy to run well at 20/1
- Jonbon very difficult to beat
2024 Betfair Tingle Creek
The Betfair Tingle Creek. Just the name of the race alone is enough to send lovers of National Hunt racing into a nostalgic haze. It is a race that has produced so many epic contests down the decades, but for people of my sort of age, there is one renewal that trumps the rest.
It is hard to believe that 20 years have passed since the Tingle Creek of 2004. I was just after finishing school and was still a little bit lost in terms of life direction, but the sheer brilliance of the National Hunt racing product around those years was a big factor ultimately steering me down the racing path. The two-mile chase division was particularly strong at the time and the narrative focused on the aging but still brilliant Moscow Flyer taking on waves of young challengers to his crown.
It’s a little hard to imagine it happening now, but such was the pride in the exploits of Moscow Flyer in Ireland, I distinctly remember one of the national newspapers printing a boxing-style pin-up poster building up to the clash between Moscow Flyer and Azertyuiop in the Queen Mother Champion Chase earlier in 2004. I remember it so well as I blu-tacked it to the inside of the door of my school locker! It will come as no surprise to guess which side of the clash I was on, but unfortunately it was over before it started as Moscow Flyer broke our hearts by unseating Barry Geraghty at the fourth-last fence.
That was the context for their rematch in the Tingle Creek in 2004. Moscow Flyer had beaten Azertyuiop in the race the previous year, but Azertyuiop had looked to have very much improved in the year that had passed, whereas Moscow Flyer was now on the verge of turning 11 and surely couldn’t be as good as he once was. Thrown into that mix was the x-factor of Well Chief who was literally half Moscow Flyer’s age and had won the Arkle Challenge Trophy at the Cheltenham Festival and the Aintree equivalent the previous season.
With Azertyuiop being sent off the 5/6 favourite, Moscow Flyer at 2/1 and Well Chief at 6/1, the stage was set. I’m sure you all know the result, but do what I did and use this an excuse to watch it again. The drama, the noise, the brilliance. It just doesn’t age.
Betfair Tingle Creek Pace Map
The scope for the 2024 renewal of the Betfair Tingle Creek to produce a comparatively epic contest is low, but it does offer us a somewhat similar basic scenario of a top-class chaser getting that bit older that is bidding to see off some new challengers.
In terms of the likely pace of the race, Jonbon is a regular front runner or pace pusher and has made the running in his last two starts, but he might get some company on the front end this time. Quilixios has made the running in three of his last four starts, missing the start on the other occasion.
Solness has been racing prominently or pushing the pace in recent starts. Edwardstone had a brief flirtation with front-running tactics that have always appealed as being likely to suit him last season, with him making all to win the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury by a long way then falling at the second-last fence while running well in the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. His connections never did seem all that keen on front-running tactics with him and he has duly returned to racing just prominently in his two starts since. They are likely to be happy for him to follow the leaders once again.
Thus, the key to the run of this contest will be whether any of Jonbon’s rivals want to step up to the plate and compete with him for the lead. Jonbon has shown himself to be a somewhat inconsistent jumper at times and taking him on in an effort to try and force him into a mistake appeals as being the best way to get him beaten. On all known form and even considering he was a bit underwhelming on his seasonal return, Jonbon is going to be very difficult to beat, but the hope is that at least one of his rivals will seize the day and ride to beat him rather than floating around and hoping he beats himself.
If one of the other potential pace pushers opts to take on Jonbon, as well as potentially putting his jumping under pressure, it could well help optimise the chances of those ridden with a bit more patience. While the ideal field size of eight may not hold up if the worst of the rain in what is an uncertain forecast hits the track, as it stands the race represents an attractive opportunity to look at one outside the market leaders to at least hit the frame at a bigger price.
Master Chewy Each Way At The Prices
The one that makes most appeal to me in that regard is the Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained Master Chewy. The seven-year-old has form that can be tied back in amongst many of his rivals today, with his head second to Found A Fifty in the Maghull Novices’ Chase at Aintree reading particularly well.
He shaped as if in need of the run on his return to action under a big weight in a handicap chase at Ascot and if the worst of the rain comes he is proven on ground that Timeform have called heavy based on times. The hope and anticipation is that he will be ridden with a bit of patience which should position him well to pick up some late pieces and get into the frame at very least.
If Jonbon gets softened up on the front end and/or is forced into a jumping mistake, there might be even more on the table for Master Chewy to pick up.
