The Abilene Christian Wildcats take on the East Texas A&M Lions in Commerce, TX. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Abilene Christian is favored by 8.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -375. The total is set at 141 points econceptinfotech.
Abilene Christian Vs East Texas A&M Prediction
My Pick: Abilene Christian -9.5 or Better
Abilene Christian Vs East Texas A&M Odds
| Abilene Christian OddsSpread -8.5-108Total141-110o / -110uMoneyline-375 | East Texas A&M OddsSpread +8.5-112Total141-110o / -110uMoneyline+295 |
- Abilene Christian vs East Texas A&M spread: Abilene Christian -8.5
- Abilene Christian vs East Texas A&M over/under: 141 points
- Abilene Christian vs East Texas A&M moneyline: Abilene Christian -375, East Texas A&M +295
- Abilene Christian vs East Texas A&M best bet: Abilene Christian -9.5 or Better
Spread
I’m laying the points with the road favorite.
Moneyline
I’m passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I’m passing on the over/under.
My Pick: Abilene Christian -9.5 or Better
Abilene Christian Vs East Texas A&M College Basketball Betting Preview
Have we reached the bottom of the market on East Texas A&M? The Lions haven’t won a game in over a month, losing to two KenPom sub-300 squads (Stonehill, Houston Christian) during the stretch.
That said, I’m surprised Abilene Christian has a winning record, given opponents are shooting a whopping 45% from deep against the Wildcats. Southern Miss and Montana State shot a combined 26-for-42 (62%) against the Wildcats on an MTE back-to-back during Feast Week.
Ultimately, I suspect Abilene is due for positive shooting regression on that end of the court and is thus undervalued.
The Wildcats run a perimeter-oriented defense that does a solid job of running opponents off the 3-point line, so it’s almost inconceivable they have run into this much tough luck. ShotQuality projects opponents should be shooting closer to 33% from 3 against them, given the “quality” of attempts allowed.
Conversely, East Texas A&M’s offense relies almost entirely on drive-and-kick, catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts. It takes precisely half of its shots from deep (16th nationally). The Lions aren’t good at running this offense, ranking sub-220th nationally in Open 3 Rate, which is likely why they rank bottom-10 nationally in offensive efficiency.
Thus, I suspect Abilene Christian will contest and deny most of East Texas A&M’s triples, and all of that positive regression will finally hit the Wildcats, resulting in a gross day for the Lions’ offense.
On the other end of the court, I’m not the biggest fan of Abilene Christian’s half-court offense, which is far too mid-range heavy for my liking.
However, the Wildcats’ harassing perimeter on-ball defense (top-25 nationally in steal rate) should generate plenty of turnovers against a Lions squad that can’t hang on to the rock (last in offensive steal rate).
Everybody has pressed East Texas A&M so far with success (.76 press PPP, 22nd percentile), and Abilene Christian should do the same.
In turn, that should generate plenty of easy Wildcat run-outs against East Texas A&M’s abhorrent transition defense (1.07 PPP allowed, 26th percentile; 13 fast-break points per game allowed, 11th percentile).
Ultimately, I’m banking on Abilene Christian finally catching an opponent on an off-shooting night. The Wildcats should respond by scoring frequently and efficiently in transition, leading to a relatively comfortable double-digit victory.
